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Sergey P.Kapitza
GLOBAL POPULATION BLOW-UP AND AFTER
THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION AND INFORMATION SOCIETY
Global Marshall Plan Initiative, Hamburg, 2006, 272 pages
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Книга представляет собой очередной Доклад Римскому клубу
и является англоязычной версией книги С.П.Капицы "Общая теория
роста человечества" (см. http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/013/biblio03.php).
Рост народонаселения мира представляется ведущей глобальной
проблемой и выражает суммарный результат всей экономической, социальной
и культурной деятельности, составляющей историю человечества. Человечество,
впервые за миллионы лет, переживает эпоху крутого перехода к новому
типу развития, при котором численный рост прекращается и население
мира стабилизируется. Книга посвящена опыту количественного исследования
развития человечества. Все человечество рассматривается как динамическая
система. Методами синергетики развита феноменологическая математическая
модель мирового демографического процесса, который ныне завершается
демографическим переходом.
Contents
Foreword by the President of the Club of Rome
Foreword by Professor Franz Josef Radermacher
Preface
1. Introduction
1.1. Global Population Growth
1.2. Dynamical Approach to Social Studies
1.3. The Statistical Nature of the Demographic Problem
1.4. From a Qualitative Description to a Quantitative Analysis
1.5. Population Explosion and the Demographic Transition
1.6. Models in Demography
1.7. The Complexity of Systems and Aggregating Data
2. Global Population as a System
2.1. The Physics of Systems
2.2. Stability and Self-Organization in Systems
2.3. The World of Non-linear Systems
2.4. Interactions in the Population System
2.5. Mankind as a Social Species
2.6. Components of Growth
3. Modeling World Population Growth
3.1. Principles of Modeling
3.2. Linear and Exponential Growth
3.3. Hyperbolic Population Growth
3.4. The Law of Quadratic Growth
3.5. Informational Nature of Growth
4. Population Growth and the Model
4.1. The First Steps of Mankind
4.2. Influence of Climate and Geography
4.3. Global population since the Neolithic
4.4. The Number of People Who Have Ever Lived
4.5 The Future Population of the World
5. The Sense of Time in History
5.1. Transformation of Time
5.2. Transforming the Time of History
5.3. The Beginning of the Scale of Time
5.4. Synchronism of Global Development
5.5. Concept of Time in History
6. The Global Interaction
6.1. The Nature of the Interaction
6.2. Isolated Communities
6.3. Hierarchy of Demographic Structures
6.4. Globalization and Development
6.5. Socioeconomic Cycles of Development
7. The Demographic Transition
7.1. Nature of the Demographic Transition
7.2. The Global Transition
7.3. Processes During the Transition
7.4. Changes in the Age Distribution
7.5. Transition and the System's Approach
7.6. Models and Theories of Demographic Processes
8. Stability of Growth
8.1. Stability of the Demographic System
8.2. History in Terms of Stability
8.3. Global Security in the Future
9. Resources, Energy and Population
9.1. The Open Model and the Population Imperative
9.2. Energy and the Population Growth
9.3. The Environment
9.4. Do Resources Limit Growth?
9.5. Distribution of Population in Space
9.6. Distribution of Wealth in the Global System
9.7. Growth of a Knowledge Economy and Culture
10. The World of the Future
10.1. Concluding remarks
10.2. Interdisciplinary Research and Demographic Policy
10.3. Global Development at Large
10.4. The New World - Stabilized and Old
Appendix.
The Mathematical Theory of Global Population Growth
A.1. The Demographic Problem
A.2. The Case of Quadratic Growth
A.3. Defining the Model and Excluding the Singularities
A.4. Dimentionless Variables of Time and Population
A.5. The Limit of Population and the Number of People Who Ever Lived
A.6. Asymptotic Solutions and Autonomous Equations
A.7. Dynamic Stability of Growth
A.8. Structure of Time and Demographic Cycles
A.9. Scaling Urban Population and Fluctuations
List of Figures
List of Tables
References
Name Index
Subject Index
Index of Countries
Global Marshall Plan Initiative
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