DYNAMICS OF FERTILITY AND PARTNERSHIP IN EUROPE Insights and lessons from comparative research
Volumes 1 and 2 Edited by Miroslav Macura and Gijs Beets United Nations, New York and Geneva, 2002

Информацию об Обследовании семьи и рождаемости (FFS) можно найти на сайте: www.unece.org/ead/pau/ffs

Результаты проекта FFS (Обследование рождаемости и семьи), реализованного между 1988 и 1999 годами подразделением по изучению населения Европейской экономической комиссии ООН при финансовой поддержке ЮНФПА (Фонд Организации Объединенных Наций в области народонаселения). В издании опубликованы доклады, представленные на конференцию в Бельгии 29-31 мая 2000 года.

Том 1

В первом томе представлены статьи о происхождении и истории проекта FFS, его достижениях и ограничениях, а также по проблемам низкой рождаемости, рождаемости и образцов партнерских взаимоотношений в восточных и западных стран за период с конца 80-х годов, об изменении моделей партнерских союзов в Европе. В томе анализируется двусторонний эффект репродуктивного и партнерского поведения в странах, представляющих четыре зоны Европы и Северную Америку, а также эволюция аналитических методов, использующихся в изучении репродуктивного и партнерского поведения. Кроме этого рассматриваются достижения и недостатки в создании интернациональной базы данных FFS, предлагается план продольного обследования родительства.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE
OVERVIEW OF THE FFS PROJECT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

CHAPTER 1
FERTILITY AND PARTNERSHIP: WHY THE FFS AND WHAT DID WE LEARN FROM IT?
Miroslav Macura and Gijs Beet with Marion Burkimsher

A. INTRODUCTION
B. NEW BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS
1. Sub-replacement fertility
2. Birth control
3. Extramarital childbearing
4. Later childbearing
5. Retreat of'marriage
6. Later marriage
7. Cohabitation
8. Behaviour interactions
C. REPERCUSSIONS
1. Population ageing
2. Population decline
3. Family change
4. Governmental reactions
D. WHERE DID THE FFS COME FROM?
E. WHAT LESSONS CAN WE DRAW FROM IT?
1. The FFS design
2. The FFS data
3. FFS comparative research
F. FROM FFS TO GGP
G. CONCLUDING REMARKS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 2
IS LOW FERTILITY POST-MODERN AND BEYOND THE ACTION OF GOVERNMENTS?
Dirk van de Kaa

CHAPTER 3
ORIGIN AND HISTORY OF THE FFS PROJECT: ACHIEVEMENTS AND LIMITATIONS
Robert Cliquet

A. ORIGIN AND HISTORY
1. UNECE Regional Meeting on Population and Development 1987
2. CBGS Ad Hoc Working Group 1987
3. Outline of the FFS Framework
4. FFS Questionnaire
B. ACHIEVEMENTS
1. International co-operation
2. Common research goals and instruments
3. Surveys in 24 countries
4. The FFS Standard Recode Files (SRF)
5. FFS Standard Country Reports (SCRs)
6. National studies
7. FFS comparative projects
C. LIMITATIONS
1. The comprehensive study of partnership and reproductive behaviour
2. National and institutional constraints
3. International constraints
D. FUTURE
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 4
EASTERN AND WESTERN EUROPE'S FERTILITY AND PARTNERSHIP PATTERNS: SELECTED DEVELOPMENTS FROM 1987 TO 1999
Miroslav Macura, Yumiko Mochizuki-Sternberg and Jose Lara Garcia

A. INTRODUCTION
B. OVERVIEW OF BROAD EAST-WEST DIFFERENCES
C. FERTILITY AND FIRST MARRIAGE: CONTINUITIES AND DISCONTINUITIES
1. Fertility
2. First marriage
3. Quantum and tempo shifts
D. COHABITATION AND EXTRA-MARITAL CHILDBEARING: A PERSISTING DIVERSITY
E. CHOICES AND PRACTICES OF YOUNGER WOMEN: MORE BEWILDERING DIFFERENCES
1. Choices about living and partnership arrangements and children
2. Birth control practices
F. FERTILITY DECLINE IN EASTERN EUROPE: AN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CRISIS HYPOTHESIS
G. CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
ANNEX

CHAPTER 5
THE STATE OF EUROPEAN UNIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF PARTNERSHIP FORMATION AND DISSOLUTION
Kathleen Kiernan

A. PARTNERSHIP FORMATION
1. Incidence of cohabitation
2. Marital status distributions
3. Union formation: evidence from the Fertility and Family Surveys
4. Never-partnered
5. Changes overtime
6. Non co-residential relationships
7. Types of first partnership
8. Sub-group differences
9. Duration of cohabiting unions
B. PARTNERSHIP DISSOLUTION
1. Pre-marital cohabitation and marital dissolution
2. Duration of pre-marital cohabitation and marital dissolution
3. Type of first partnership and partnership dissolution
4. Parental divorce, religious observance and partnership dissolution
5. Number of partnerships
C. POLICY BACKGROUND AND RESPONSES
D. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 6
INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PARTNERSHIP AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR
Antonella Pinnelli, Alessandra De Rose, Paola Di Giulio and Alessandro Rosina

A. INTRODUCTION
B. LITERATURE REVIEW
C. HYPOTHESES AND DATA
D. PARTNERSHIP PATTERNS IN ITALY, FRANCE, HUNGARY, SWEDEN AND THE UNITED STATES
E. REPRODUCTIVE HISTORIES IN ITALY, FRANCE, HUNGARY, SWEDEN AND THE UNITED STATES
F. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST, SECOND AND THIRD CHILD ACCORDING TO THE TYPE AND NUMBER OF PARTNERSHIPS
G. PARTNERSHIP MODELS AS DETERMINANTS OF THE QUANTUM AND TEMPO OF FERTILITY
H. CHANGES IN THE UNION AS DETERMINANTS OF BIRTH TIMING
I. FERTILITY AS A DETERMINANT OF PARTNERSHIP BEHAVIOUR
J. CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
ANNEX
1. Mixture models for the analysis of birth histories
2. Hazards model with time dependent covariates

CHAPTER 7
NEW APPROACHES AND METHODOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN THE STUDY OF PARTNERSHIP AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR
Daniel Courgeau

A. INTRODUCTION
B. INTERACTING PROCESSES
1. The causal model
2. The interaction model
3. Some other issues
4. Atomic fallacy
C. NON-LINEAR MODELS
1. Multi-state non-linear tables
2. Viability Theory
3. Ecological fallacy
D. ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX STRUCTURES
1. Contextual and multilevel analysis
2. Towards a multilevel event history analysis
E. CONCLUDING REMARKS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 8
FFS AND THE INTERNATIONAL DATABASE: PRECAUTIONS FOR USE
Patrick Festy and France Prioux

A. OVERVIEW
1. Implicit and explicit objectives for the FFS
2. Achievements and reservations
B. COMPARABILITY OF SURVEY AND SAMPLE DESIGNS
1. Sampling design
2. A brief evaluation of survey and sample designs
C. COMPARABILITY OF QUESTIONNAIRES
1. The model questionnaire
2. The national questionnaires
3. A brief evaluation of comparability of the biographic questionnaires
D. THE STANDARD RECODE FILES AND THE INTERNATIONAL DATABASE
1. Framing the Standard Recode Files
2. Considerations on the Standard Recode Files
3. A brief evaluation of the international database
E. CONCLUSION: LOOKING BEYOND THE FFS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 9
MOVING BEYOND ELABORATE DESCRIPTION: TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING CHOICES ABOUT PARENTHOOD
John Hobcraft

A. INTRODUCTION
B. STRATEGIES FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REVISITED
C. DESIGN ISSUES
D. SOME ASPECTS OF CONTENT
1. Requirements and constraints
2. Prospective follow-up
3. Contextual information
E. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 10
PARTNERSHIP AND FERTILITY - AN INCOMPLETE REVOLUTION?
David Coleman

A. INTRODUCTION
B. EVALUATING NOVELTY
C. THE NEXT FFS PROGRAMME?
D. WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY ABOUT? THE PROBLEM OF EXPLANATION
E. LIMITATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHY AS AN 'OBJECT SCIENCE
F. MICRO PARAMOUNT?
G. AN INCOMPLETE REVOLUTION
H. OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS IN DEMOGRAPHY
I. SALVATION THROUGH WELFARE - JAPAN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
J. SALVATION THROUGH ILLEGITIMACY?
K. SALVATION THROUGH GENETICS?
L. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES

ANNEX 1:
FINAL PROGRAMME OF THE FFS FLAGSHIP CONFERENCE

ANNEX 2:
LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS AND THEIR AFFILIATION

Том 2

Статьи, представленные во втором томе, разделены на 4 части, каждая из которых объединяет статьи, связанные с 4 главными темами поведения в отношении рождаемости и партнерства. Часть первая связана с детерминантами развития событий в таких процессах как партнерство и рождаемость: уход из родительского дома, первое рождение, третье рождение, распад первого родительского союза и рождение ребенка в семье, где у одного из родителей уже есть ребенок. Вторая часть анализирует то, как реализуются ожидания в области рождаемости. В третьей части рассматриваются вопросы качества данных FFS, а также переменные, связанные с уровнем образования. В четвертой части вопросы партнерства и рождаемости расширены до уровня жилищных условий и семейных стратегий. Во всех частях в той или иной степени используются данные FFS.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE
THE FFS PROJECT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

CHAPTER 1
FERTILITY AND PARTNERSHIP IN EUROPE: THE ROLE OF COUNTRY-SPECIFIC INSTITUTIONS AND POLICIES
Erik Klijzing and Marline Corijn

A. INTRODUCTION
B. STRUCTURE OF THIS VOLUME
C. A CRITICAL APPRAISAL AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
REFERENCES

PART ONE: PARTNERSHIP AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR

CHAPTER 2
HOUSEHOLD AND UNION FORMATION IN A MEDITERRANEAN FASHION: ITALY AND SPAIN
Francesco C. Billari, Maria Castiglioni, Teresa Castro Martin, Francesca Michielin and Fausta Ongaro

A. BACKGROUND: THE "LATEST LATE" TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD
B. MACRO TRENDS AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
C. THE DATA AND THE CONNECTION BETWEEN HOUSEHOLD AND UNION FORMATION
D. A MULTIPLE DESTINATION FRAMEWORK FOR MODELLING COHORT DYNAMICS
E. THE ROLE OF EDUCATION AND WORK
1. The transition to residential autonomy
2. The transition to neolocal marriages
3. The transition to patrilocal unions
4. The transition to non-marital cohabitation
F. THE ROLE OF EARLY CHILDBEARING
G. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 3
THE IMPACT OF UNION FORMATION DYNAMICS ON FIRST BIRTHS IN WEST GERMANY AND ITALY: ARE THERE SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE?
Francesco C. Billari and Hans-Peter Kohler

A. INTRODUCTION
B. THE DATA
C. UNION FORMATION AND THE TRANSITION TO PARENTHOOD: COHORT DYNAMICS
D. MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN FIRST UNIONS, FIRST MARRIAGES AND FIRST BIRTHS
E. THE CHANGING IMPACT OF FIRST UNIONS ON FIRST BIRTHS: A TRANSITION RATE MODEL
F. DISCUSSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 4
FAMILY POLICIES, WORK ARRANGEMENTS AND THE THIRD CHILD IN FRANCE AND SWEDEN
Diana Corman

A. INTRODUCTION
B. FAMILY-FRIENDLY POLICIES AND THIRD BIRTHS
1. Flexible work arrangements
2. Parental leave
3. Childcare services
C. ANALYSIS
1. Data
2. Variables
3. Findings
D. DISCUSSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 5
DISRUPTION OF THE FIRST 'PARENTAL UNION' IN SWEDEN AND HUNGARY FOCUSING ON POLICY AND GENDER EFFECTS
Livia Sz. Oldh

A. BACKGROUND
B. DATA AND METHOD
C. VARIABLES
D. FINDINGS
1. Sweden
2. Hungary
E. DISCUSSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 6
CHILDBEARING IN STEPFAMILIES: HOW PARITY MATTERS
Elizabeth Thomson, Jan M. Hoem, Andres Vikat, Alexia Prskawetz, Isabella Buber
Lament Toulemon, Ursula Henz, Amy L. Godecker, Vladimira Kantorova

A. THEORY AND EVIDENCE ON CHILDBEARING IN STEPFAMILIES
B. DATA AND METHODS
C. RESULTS
D. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

PART TWO: FERTILITY EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIOUR

CHAPTER 7
FREE TO CHOOSE - BUT UNABLE TO STICK TO IT?
TuridNoack and Lars 0stby

A. INTRODUCTION
B. DATA
C. RESULTS
1. How reliable are negative expectations?
2. Positive expectations and subsequent births
3. Expected number of children compared to actual number
4. How many women 'hit' their reproductive target?
5. Propensities toward optimism or realism in expressing future fertility
D. DISCUSSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 8
DESIRED AND ACHIEVED FERTILITY
Christine Van Peer

A. INTRODUCTION
B. INTENTIONS AND BEHAVIOUR
C. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
D. DATA AND METHODS
E. DISCUSSION
1. Education
2. Labour force participation
3. Partnership and fertility
F. THE MACRO-LEVEL CONTEXT
1. Family policy and fertility
2. Effects of policy measures directly targeted at families
3. Family policy models
G. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

PART THREE: DATA QUALITY ISSUES

CHAPTER 9
DATA QUALITY ISSUES IN COMPARATIVE FERTILITY AND FAMILY SURVEYS
Andrej Kveder

A. INTRODUCTION
B. METHODS
1. Surveys
2. Coding and topic selection
3. Analysis
C. RESULTS
D. DISCUSSION
E. CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 10
COMPARING THE 1988 INTERNATIONAL STANDARD CLASSIFICATION OF EDUCATION (ISCED) WITH RETROSPECTIVE INFORMATION FROM EDUCATIONAL HISTORIES
Edith Dourleijn, Aart C. Liefbroer and Gijs C.N. Beets

A. INTRODUCTION
B. MEASUREMENT ISSUES
C. DATA AND MEASURES
D. ANALYSIS STRATEGY
E. RESULTS
1. Distribution by educational attainment
2. Impact of educational attainment on entry into motherhood
F. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
REFERENCES

PART FOUR: INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO FAMILY RESEARCH

CHAPTER 11
TOWARD A CHILD-CENTERED LIFE COURSE PERSPECTIVE ON FAMILY STRUCTURES: MULTI-STATE EARLY LIFE TABLES
Patrick Heuveline and Jeffrey M. Timberlake

A. BACKGROUND
B. DATA AND METHODS.
1. States of interest
2. Selected states and observable statuses
3. Estimating rates of transition between statuses
4. Multi-state life table construction from status transition rates
C. DISCUSSION
D. SOME ILLUSTRATIVE RESULTS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 12
IMPACT OF POPULATION RELATED POLICIES ON SELECTED LIVING ARRANGEMENTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL IN BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, AND SWITZERLAND
Beat Fux and A. Doris Baumgartner

A. INTRODUCTION
B. AN APPROACH TO ANALYSE THE IMPACT OF FAMILY POLICIES ON LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
C. HYPOTHESES AND DESCRIPTION OF BASIC DEVELOPMENTS
1. One-person households
2. Childless couples
3. Lone parent families
4. Larger households (with five or more persons)
D. METHOD AND DISCUSSION
E. CONCLUDING REMARKS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 13
FERTILITY AND THE ROLE OF FAMILY STRATEGIES IN HUNGARY, ITALY, THE NETHERLANDS AND SWEDEN
Willy Bosveld

A. INTRODUCTION
B. DATA AND METHODS
C. THE CONTEXTUAL SETTING OF THE FAMILY LIFE DOMAIN
D. THE LIFE COURSE TRAJECTORIES
1. The fertility career
2. The partner career
3. Adjusting fertility and partner careers
E. THE SYNTHESIS OF LIFE STRATEGIES
REFERENCES

ANNEXES