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Current topic: The complex demographic future of Belarus

• · Demographic successes of recent years

• · The age structure of the population cools optimism

• · Forecasts do not inspire high hopes

• What needs to be done

• Links to related topics

• Topics of previous issues

Eurasian demographic barometer

• The population of the CIS countries according to estimates of the UN 2015 Revision

• The population of the CIS in the middle of 2015 numbered 282 million people

• In 2050 the population of the CIS will, with a probability of 95%, be between 251 and 305 million people, by the medium variant of forecast it will be 277 million

• The main factor in population change of the CIS will be a natural decrease of the population, which will intensify with migration outflow

• In 2010-2015, the total fertility rate varied across the CIS countries by 1.27 to 3.55; by the end of the century the difference will be reduced to 0.14

• The increase in life expectancy in the CIS countries by the mid-21^st century will be from 3 to 7 years

• Aging of the CIS population will accelerate: according to the medium variant forecast the proportion of elderly people 65 years and older will increase from 11% in 2015 to 18% in 2050

Through the eyes of the analysts

• Marriage trends in the Republic of Belarus

• Divorce trends in the Republic of Belarus

• A statistical evaluation and analysis of the demographic importance of the age structure of the population of Belarus

• The labor market in Belarus’ changing economy

• The impact of migration flows on the socio-economic development of Belarus

Q&A

• Mandatory health insurance: problems and solutions

• Adoption in Russia: Monitoring

• Views on divorce 25 years ago and today

• The right to abortion

• Premarital sex: taboo or norm?

• Sexual education of youth: yesterday and today

• “Time to get out” - 2015

In the vastness of Russia

• By the year 2100 life expectancy in Russia will grow to 82 years

• By 2030 12,786,000 people will live in Moscow

• Skvortsova notes rise in mortality among middle-aged people

• Increase in mortality in first six months of year points to continuing systemic health care problems

• Ministry of Health links country’s rise in overall mortality to increasing number of elderly

• Infant mortality in Russia has decreased by 13.2% over last 6 months

• Infant and maternal mortality rates in Moscow have decreased by more than 25%

• Russian women having fewer babies

• Will the reduction in imported condoms improve the demographic situation?

• Rosstat discusses potential of micro-census in 2015

• IMF advises Russia to raise retirement age

• Medvedev calls increase in the proportion of pensioners a social challenge

• Ministry of Labor proposes to increase expected “survival” period for the funded pension

• Government expands possible uses of maternity capital

• Ministry of Finance proposes not to index the maternity capital in 2016

• Ministry of Labor proposes to use 10 billion rubles from “anti-crisis money” for the needs of the disabled

• In State Duma, a proposal to begin abolishing work record books from megalopolises

• Unemployment is decreasing, but the number of part-time workers is increasing

• The size of unemployment benefits should stimulate people to look for work

• Almost 1 million Russians have declared a second citizenship

• For specialists of 74 professions, getting Russian citizenship will become easier

• Government to deal with naturalization of foreign graduates of Russian universities

• Moscow authorities have found out the number of commuters from neighboring regions

• Cabinet approves creation of new system of migration control

• Muscovites less disturbed by migrants

• Is there no ban on schools admitting the children of unregistered migrants?

• The number of new cases of HIV should go down by 25% by the year 2020

• The head of Rospotrebnadzor (Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing)

• supports compulsory HIV testing before marriage

• Law comes into force facilitating access of cancer patients to narcotic analgesics

• One in six Russian women aborts due to partner’s unreadiness for fatherhood

• In 2015 over 400 thousand Russians were bitten by ticks

• Russians have begun drinking less vodka and more wine

• Special penalties to be imposed for worst traffic offenders

• Divorces are caused by poverty, infidelity and selfishness

Eurasian panorama

• Population of Belarus has increased to 9,485,300 people

• Population of Armenia comes to 3,005,500 people

• Kirgizia’s resident population increased over 6-month period

• By 2100 the population of Kazakhstan won’t exceed 24 million

• Life expectancy of Kazakhs has increased to 71 years

• Women in Moldova live on average eight years longer than men

• Fertility in Ukraine has decreased by 5.8%

• Every day 440 children are born in Azerbaijan

• Citizens of Kirgizia have begun marrying and divorcing less often

• 72.8% of Kirgizia’s population are Kirgiz

• EAEC countries considering draft agreement on the export of pensions

• In Belarus, average monthly benefit for child care has increased by 16.3% for children under 3 years

• Ukraine plans to give up work record books

• In Moldova, more unemployed than vacant positions

• Kirgizia becomes full member of Eurasian Economic Union

• The number of internally displaced persons in Ukraine has reached 918,765 people

• Sharp increase in the percentage of Ukrainians working abroad

• Fewer Tajik migrant workers coming to Russia

• FMS of Russia amnesties 49 thousand migrants from Kirgizia

• Remittances sent home by Moldovan migrant workers decreased by 28.7% over six months

• Anti-smoking law comes into force in Transnistria

• In Moldova, a growing number of drug addicts

• Some 100 thousand people in Armenia are carriers of hepatitis B and C

• New bill is designed to prevent selective abortions in Armenia

• The number of abortions in Moldova decreased somewhat over past year

• Kirgizia has second highest traffic accident mortality rate in Central Asia

• Azerbaijan to introduce mandatory medical insurance

• World Bank has allocated $10 million for the development of health care in Tajikistan

• Uzbekistan to implement international health regulations

• Tajikistan needs $2 billion and 80 years to meet drinking water needs of population

• Kirgiz believers officially allowed to buy their way out of army

World news

• World population has reached 7.3 billion

• Romania and Bulgaria facing record population decline

• Lithuania and Latvia put on list of world’s “endangered” countries

• Japanese women live longest in the word

• Ethnic minorities will become the majority population in the US by the mid-2040s

• The number of Jews in the word has reached pre-war levels

• Spain raises marriage age

• 59% of children in Estonia are born out of wedlock

• Families in China may be allowed to have second child

• Over 800 million people in word live in poverty and hunger

• US to allocate $1 billion for Africa’s development

• Japanese Prime Minister pledges to create attractive society for women

• China plans within next five years to fight poverty with the help of rural tourism

• Total unemployment in the Eurozone is 11.1%

• The younger generation leaving Greece in search of work

• 61% of working age women in Turkey are outside the labor market

• New British immigration law will toughen requirement for English language proficiency

• The number of migrants in Germany has reached record levels

• Since the start of the year 137 thousand migrants have arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean Sea

• About 2,000 migrants have died this year while crossing the Mediterranean Sea

• Cameron promises to deal with flow of migrants using dogs and fences

• 38% of EU citizens frightened by increased flow of migrants

• The first refugees in Lithuania will appear in January 2016

• Estonia gets what it sought in disputes with EU leadership regarding refugees

• Latvia to appoint experts to select suitable refugees for the country

• In past 15 years nearly 8 million lives have been saved in the battle with AIDS

• South Korean authorities announce end to country’s coronavirus outbreak

• Scientists discover why men die earlier than women

• Abortion debate in US becomes likely obstacle to Fed rate hike

• More and more Americans are overweight or obese

• 40% of Japanese do not want a romantic relationship

• US Supreme Court allows same-sex marriage in all 50 states

• Merkel speaks out against same-sex marriage

The newspapers write about

• “RBK” and “Expert Online” on world population projections

• “Svobodnaya Pressa” and “Gazeta.ru” on Russia’s demographic problems

• “RBK”, “Kommersant FM” and “Nezavisimaya gazeta” on the causes of Russia’s rise in mortality

• “Kommersant-Vlast”, “Polit.ru” and “Vedomosti” on reforming Russia’s health care system

• “Rossiyskaya gazeta” on infant mortality in Russia

• “Kommersant” on traffic accident mortality

• “Novaya gazeta” on the problem of AIDS in Russia

• “Rossiyskaya gazeta” on optimizing the obstetrics system

• “Moskovskiy Komsomolets-Moldova” and “Moldavskie vedomosti” on the demographic situation in Moldova

• “Belorusskie novosti” on the health of Belarusians

• “Asia-Plus” on compulsory medical examinations for newlyweds in Tajikistan

• “Kommersant” on the maternity capital and the improvement of living conditions

• “Izvestiya” on additional benefits for adoption

• “Kommersant” on conservative family values

• “Moskovskiy Komsomolets” on the funding of Planned Parenthood

• “Slon.ru” on Buffet and contraceptives

• “Nevskie novosti” on reducing purchases of foreign condoms

• “BBC Russkaya sluzhba” on the “irrelevance” of condoms

• “URA.Ru” on the “abortion lobby”

• “Sputnik Kyrgyzstan” on abortions in Kirgizia

• “Kommersant-Dengi” on Russia’s strategy for the elderly

• “Lenta.ru” on the economy and the retirement age

• “Kommersant” on the retirement age for officials

• “Kommersant-Vlast” on the EU’s migration strategy

• “Slon.ru” on Canada’s immigration policy

• “RBK” on the problem of refugees in Europe

• “RBK” on Russia’s expenditures to solve the problem of Ukrainian refugees

• “Kommersant” on migrants and patents

• “RBK” on Russia’s income from migrant workers

• “Russkaya sluzhba BBC” on the impact of labor migration on Tajikistan

• “FINANCE.UA” on migrant remittances to Ukraine

• “Lenta.ru” on exams for foreigners in Russia

• “Kommersant” on the loyalty and disloyalty of diasporas

• “Kommersant” on emigration moods in Russia

• “Delfi.It” on emigration from Lithuania and Russia

• “Slon.ru” on forced labor in post-Soviet countries

• “Asia-Plus” on human trafficking in Tajikistan

• “Novaya gazeta” and “Ogonyok” on poverty in Russia

• “Vedomosti” and “RBK” on targeted social assistance

• “Kommersant” on the availability of social assistance

• “Ogonyok” on the situation on Russia’s labor market

• “Novosti Belarusi” on Belarus’ labor market

• “Gazeta.ru” on productivity

• “Vedomosti” on robots instead of a middle class

• “Panorama” on the UNESCO report “Education for all”

• “Polit.ru” on the status of women in Chechnya

• “BBC Russkaya sluzhba” on the advisability of legalizing prostitution

• “Ekho” on buying your way out of the army

• “Vedomosti” on the problems of urban ecology

Read books and magazines

• World Population Prospects

• Demographic statistics: a review of definitions and methods of collection in 44 European countries

• Gender norms and practices in maternal and reproductive health, family planning, paternity and domestic violence

• BRICS. Joint statistical publication. 2015

• Czech Republic. Health Systems in Transition

• Through the pages of the journals “Narodonaseleniye” (“Population”) and “Vestnik MGU. Seriya 18. Sotsiologiya i politologiya” (“MSU Bulletin. Series 18. Sociology and Political Science”)

• Contents of the journal “Demographic Research”

Profession: researcher

• Happy anniversary to Lyudmila Petrovna Shakhotko

• On the 70^th anniversary of the death of Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky

• In memory of Boris Borisovich Prokhorov